译者 evelynlv777
CHINA is routinely accused of exporting too much. Its foreign sales far exceed its foreign purchases, often by a wide margin. This chronic surplus angers many. This week President Barack Obama signed a bill that restores his administration’s power to impose tariffs on countries like China and Vietnam, when their goods are reckoned to be subsidised or dumped on American markets. The bill passed swiftly through both chambers of Congress. When it comes to rebuffing China’s exports, America’s fractious legislature is as harmonious as the Chinese one.通常外国人认为中国的出口实在太多了。中国的出口量远远大于它的进口量，贸易极不平衡。长久以来这种贸易顺差令很多国家都觉得不爽。本周奥巴马总统新批准了一项议案，如果当外国商品在美国有倾销行为时，该议案赋予美国政府可以向外国商品征收关税，比如来自中国与越南的商品。两个议会对此议案都没有异议,很快就批准了.如果说这样的行为是为了抵制中国向外出口,那么中国政府在贸易政策上与美国人在实质上是差不多的.
But this month brought two intriguing breaks to the routine. On March 13th three of China’s biggest trading partners—Japan, the European Union and America—complained that China was exporting too little, not too much. They brought a case at the World Trade Organisation alleging that China was unfairly restricting its exports of tungsten, molybdenum and 17 “rare earths”, obscure elements such as terbium and europium, used in the manufacture of many high-tech goods including fluorescent lights. China’s reaction was incandescent; it dismissed the case as “groundless”.不过这个月因为两次额外的事件成为这种不愉快的贸易战中小小的插曲. 3月13日中国最大的三个贸易伙伴---日本,欧盟与美国---抱怨说中国对外出口是太少,而不是太多他们向世贸组织提出,中国采取不公平的政策,限制国内钨,钼与其它17种"稀有金属",及少有元素诸如铽,铕等,在制造高科技产品比如荧光灯时都有用到.中国对此的态度很明确,它认为这样的说法是"毫无根据的."
The other novelty arrived a few days earlier when China’s customs bureau reported something rarer than europium: a Chinese trade deficit. At $31.5 billion in February, the imbalance was bigger than any deficit on record—it was bigger even than many of China’s monthly surpluses.另一个小插曲是几天前,中国海关总署发布了一则数据,堪比铕元素还稀有,这则数据说:二月份中国的贸易赤字在315亿美元,这是史上最高的贸易赤字---这个赤字甚至比以往中国在任何一个月的贸易顺差还要大.
China’s trade balance often dips around Chinese New Year, as export factories close for the festival. The holiday also arrived earlier this year than last, distorting the data. But even if the figures for January and February are added together, China ran a deficit of over $4 billion. Exports and imports typically rebound in sync as China gets back to work. This year, imports rebounded alone (see chart 1).中国的进出口量往往在春节前后出现转折,因为那时外贸出口工厂都放假了. 而今年的春节比往年来的要早,因此在进出口数据上出现了较为明显的波动.不过即使把1月与2月的数据都加起来,中国的贸易赤字超过40亿美元.春节过后,进出口基本都会同时反弹.今年却只有进口是呈上涨趋势(见图表1).
The deficit has fuelled one fear and one hope. The fear is that China’s economy will slow sharply, hobbled by declining exports to crisis-racked Europe and a rising bill for commodities like oil. The hope is that China is rebalancing, moving away from an economic model reliant on foreign demand. Neither the hope nor the fear is wholly justified by this month’s figures.这种贸易逆差有喜有忧.忧的是中国经济增速将会明显降低,其中明显的因素是因为欧洲经济普遍不景气,导致中国向欧洲出口大减,同时因为石油等原料价格上涨,导致生产成本上升. 喜的是中国由此可以改变以往固有的贸易状态,不过多地依赖与国外需求的出口经济.不过从本月的数据看来,并不能支持以上两方面的观点.
It is true that China’s weak exports are contributing to a slowdown in the broader economy. China’s industrial production grew by 11.4% in January and February, compared with the same two months in 2010, much slower than its normal pace of about 15%. But the prospects for global growth are brightening, suggesting that China’s exports have bottomed out. And the slowdown in China’s economy has been matched by a helpful fall in inflation. That gives China’s government some scope to stimulate demand.由于中国贸易出口量减少导致全国经济发展步伐放缓,这的确是事实. 1月与2月是,中国工业总产值的增长率为11.4%,与2010年同月相比,要比正常的15%的增长率要第的多. 不过由于全球经济复苏看好, 估计中国的贸易出口量应该不会再少下去. 而且由于中国国内通货膨胀率降低, 中国经济发展的形势应该也会慢慢好起来.这给中国政府在制定刺激需求政策上留了余地.
What about rebalancing? February’s trade deficit may be an anomaly but it highlights a broader trend: the swift decline in China’s external imbalance. China’s current-account surplus, a broad measure of the country’s external payments and receipts for goods and services, fell to 2.8% of GDP last year from a peak of over 10% of GDP before the financial crisis (see chart 2). In Hong Kong’s currency-derivatives market people no longer bet that the yuan will only strengthen. That suggests the yuan is close to its “equilibrium” level, said Wen Jiabao, China’s prime minister.那么贸易结构会改变吗? 2月份的贸易赤字可能是一次偶然现象, 不过却预示了经济发展的更宽的趋势: 中国进出口极不平衡的状态将得到改变.中国目前的贸易顺差额是用来衡量国家对外商品与服务的收支状态,这个数据去年跌至国民生产总值的2.8%,而最高时候是10%(在经济危机前,见图表2）。在香港的货币投资市场上，人们已经不会认为人民币肯定只会升值。中国国家总理温家宝说， 那就表明了人民币已经接近“平衡”状态。
Unfortunately, China has rebalanced externally without rebalancing internally. Its current-account surplus has narrowed largely because of an increase in domestic investment, not consumption. Some economists therefore worry that China’s trade surpluses will soon reappear. An investment boom from 2001-04, for example, paved the way for the ballooning surplus of 2004-07, according to Jonathan Anderson, formerly of UBS. That investment poured into heavy industries, such as aluminium, machine tools, cement, chemicals and steel. This domestic supply displaced imports of the same products. And when a slowdown in China’s construction industry subsequently depressed domestic demand for these items, China sold abroad what it could no longer sell at home. Big surpluses were the result.然而欠缺的是，中国仅仅在对外经济上开始改变贸易状态，可是对于国内经济却没有改变。 中国目前的财政余额的数字已经变小，主要是因为国内投资增加，而不是国内消费增加。 一些经济学家担心中国的贸易顺差很快又会占主导地位。曾在瑞银集团工作的Jonathan Anderson 举例说，2001-04年是国内投资的高潮，因此为2004-07年的贸易顺差奠定了基础。那些投资主要是在重工业，比如铝，机械工具，水泥，化工与钢材方面。 这些产品都由国内供应了，因此减少了对这些产品的进口。然而当中国建筑业大幅萎缩，对这些原材料的需求急剧下降，当国内市场卖不动这些产品时，就开始转向出口国外。由此就导致了较大的贸易顺差。
In the past three years, China has also enjoyed a terrific investment boom. And with the property market weakening, the construction industry is also liable to slow again. Is the stage therefore set for a repeat of the surpluses of 2004-07?过去的三年中，中国经历了一段很好的投资高涨时期。 随着房地产市场的低迷，建筑业也受到影响。接下来将会重现2004-07年贸易顺差高潮的一幕吗？
The difference now is the nature of China’s investment boom, which has concentrated on roads, railways and houses, not factories. In 2009, for example, loans for fixed investment increased dramatically. But only 10% were made to manufacturers, says Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute. About 50% went to infrastructure projects. In his annual review of the government’s work this month, Mr Wen noted that China had shut down outdated factories capable of making as much as 150m tonnes of cement and 31.2m tonnes of iron.与以前所不同的是，中国投资方向的重点现在是公路，铁路与住房建设，而不是工厂。 比如在2009年是， 发放给已经批准的投资项目的贷款额增长很快。 不过只有10%是流向制造业的，彼得森国际经济研究所的Nicholas Lardy如是说。大约50%的资金是流向基础项目建设上。 本月温家宝总理在对政府工作的年度总结报告上指出，中国关闭了一些不能迎合现代潮流的工厂，这些工厂的生产能力达到15亿吨水泥与3.12亿吨铁。
Efforts to rationalise heavy industries and remove excess capacity should help prevent a repeat of the big external surpluses of yesteryear. That should, in turn, placate China’s irritable trading partners. But things might not be so simple. Take one particularly fragmented and dirty industry. At the government’s urging, one of its bigger firms has bought over a dozen others, eight of which were later shut down. That has reduced the industry’s capacity to flood the world with its products. The problem? These products are rare earths.对于重工业的合理改革可以减少过剩的产能， 这样可以预防再次出现对外贸易顺差突然加大。此举反过来也能使中国的贸易伙伴们稍微好受些。 不过事情并不那么简单。 举例来看其中最分散问题最 严重的工业把。 由于政府的敦促，一些较大的国有企业收购了其它很多小企业， 还有8家企业被关闭。这样中国作为世界工厂，它的产能大大减少，也不可能像以前那样出口那么多的产品了。 问题在哪里呢？这些产品是稀有金属。
